The face of US energy consumption is changing. The expansion of data centers, electric vehicles, and industrial growth concentrated in the Sunbelt region is projected to drive a significant rise in power demand—and a growing nuclear sector is positioning itself to meet that need.
A recent report by Grid Strategies forecasts a nearly 16% rise in US electricity demand by 2029. Over the past two years, projections have surged, with the five-year load growth forecast increasing nearly fivefold from 23 GW to 128 GW.
That rapid growth forecast is bucking the trend of stagnancy. For the last two decades, the utility industry has experienced minimal growth of <1% annually. But the anticipated growth rate over the next five years has jumped to 3%, which would require a sixfold increase in the planning and construction of new generation and transmission capacity.
“Data centers are probably the biggest single source [of demand],” Rob Gramlich, president of Grid Strategies, told Ignition. “That’s been one of the few areas of actual growth in the power sector over the last decade.”
The DOE estimates that the US will need about 200 GW of additional nuclear power to support this increased demand and achieve its 2050 net-zero emissions goal.
Mind the gap: The reactors operating today aren’t enough to meet the projected demand growth:
- The US currently operates 97 GW of nuclear energy, supplying about 20% of the nation’s electricity.
- The US has 13 proposed reactors with the potential to generate an additional 10.5 GW of energy.
While no new large-scale reactors are under construction in the US, other countries—including China, Turkey, and Egypt—are actively developing new reactors. On Jan. 1, China began operations at Unit 1 of the Zhangzhou Nuclear Power Project, the first of five reactors set to open this year. The People’s Republic expects to open 29 more by 2030.
Powering the future: Because the US has no immediate plans to build new reactors, meeting this rising energy demand may hinge on existing infrastructure. Preliminary DOE research suggests that over 60 GW of new nuclear capacity could be developed at operating or recently retired nuclear power plants. This could expand to 95 GW by deploying smaller advanced reactors of ~600 MW each.
- Researchers identified existing nuclear plants where companies have engaged with the NRC to license 17 additional reactors.
- These unbuilt reactors could add 24 GW of clean energy capacity.
- The NRC has issued combined construction and operating licenses for eight reactors at five sites, confirming their readiness for expansion.
Despite the optimism surrounding renewable energy, particularly with solar and battery storage, Gramlich points to a key challenge: ensuring power availability at all times—especially on cold winter mornings or cloudy days. Keeping existing nuclear plants running may be vital to meeting intermittent energy demand.
“The realistic expectation is that many existing nuclear plants will stay online longer than originally planned,” Gramlich said.
Gramlich warns that if the US fails to meet rising demand and keep its utility rates competitive, global competition could lead to the overseas relocation of data centers and manufacturing.
